弗雷德.威尔逊
硅谷顶尖的风险投资家和著名的博客作者；风险投资公司Union Square的共同创始人。由于出色的投资记录，他被公认为纽约投资界最具影响力的人物之一。
导语
被誉为“全球最牛VC”的USV联合广场创投最赚钱的基金账面IRR近70%，专注于“Web2.0”。作为USV的创始人之一，Fred Wilson在业界的影响力不仅仅来自于卓越的投资战绩，最受业界关注的，莫过于来年预测和往年回顾。
特朗普将开始进行削减公司和个人所得税，并消除对持有利息资本收益的优惠待遇。
股票市场已经考虑到了这些减税措施，因此它不会象预期那样对投资者有大影响，但七年半牛市运行将由于减税刺激而延长，又会由于速率的上升和/或总统特朗普的一些愚蠢的举动而停止，这似乎是不可避免的，我们只是不知道它的时间。对持有利息的资本利得损失处理不会对专业投资者造成太大的损害，因为较低的个人所得税率将受到抨击。此外，企业将使用较低的税率作为借口，带回海外锁定的大量资本，产生现金盈余，将导致并购热潮。这将导致“老式”公司收购初创公司。
IPO市场
由Snapchat领导的IPO市场将会是白热的。 寻找企业家和风险投资者，支持他们在2017年IPO发热。我希望我们将在2017年看到更多的科技首次公开招股。
高科技市场将走向搜索，社交和移动等方面
投资者和企业家承认，谷歌和Facebook已经胜利了，其他人失败率。 在2017年，几乎不可能为在线广告业务筹集资金。然而，将会有新的玩家，如Snapchat，以及Twitter等现有的玩家，通过为广告客户提供与Facebook和Google不同的产品。
AI将是新的风向
投资者将向管理层询问投资前的“AI策略”，并谨慎对没有投资者的公司。
技术投资者将开始采用基因组学作为额外的“信息技术”投资类别
如此一来，将模糊了生命科学和技术投资者之间在过去三十年风险投资领域存在的区别。 这将导致资金疯狂和许多投资将被恶化。 但在这个领域将有大赢家，它将是在可预见的未来风险投资的一个重要类别。
谷歌，Facebook
在较小程度上，谷歌，Facebook，苹果和亚马逊将被美国政府和个人在（因为他们在多年在美国以外）被视为垄断者。像假冒新闻危机这样的事情将使每个人清楚地知道我们对这些科技巨头的依赖程度，并会有反弹。微软的redux和政府将寻求补救，但这将是徒劳的。 但是像在微软的情况一样，技术，特别是基于开放数据平台（即区块链技术）的分散应用，将会来到救援，减少我们对这些垄断的依赖。这种情况需要几年才能完成，但种子已经播种，我们将2017年开始看到这种情况出现。
网络战争
网络战争将是我们生活中的中心前沿，就像冷战时期的核战争一样。 Crypto将相当于炸弹掩体，我们将会学习私钥，如何使用它们，以及如何管理它们。 一家公司将通过一个易于使用的界面制作加密主流，它将成为下一个大事。
一套好的框架能让市场和企业家识别出不错的好项目。同时，根据头脑中的积累数据，可以计算出同类项目中最高新的项目。
Fred Wilson: What is Going to Happen in 2017
Trump will hit the ground running, cutting corporate and personal taxes, and eliminating the preferential treatment of carried interest capital gains. The stock market has already factored in these tax cuts so it won’t be as big of a boon for investors as might be expected, but the seven and half year bull market run will be extended as a result of this tax cut stimulus before being halted by rising rates and/or some boneheaded move by President Trump which seems inevitable. We just don’t know the timing of it. The loss of capital gains treatment on carried interest won’t hurt professional investors too much because the lower personal tax rates will take the sting out of it. In addition, corporations will use the lower tax rates as an excuse to bring back massive amounts of capital that have been locked up overseas, producing a cash surplus that will result in an M&A boom. This will lead to an even more fuel to the fire that is causing “old line” corporations to acquire startups.
The IPO market, led by Snapchat, will be white hot. Look for entrepreneurs and the VCs that back them to have IPO fever in 2017. I expect we will see more tech IPOs in 2017 than we have since 2000.
The ad: tech market will go the way of search, social, and mobile as investors and entrepreneurs concede that Google and Facebook have won and everyone else has lost. It will be nearly impossible to raise money for an online advertising business in 2017. However, there will be new players, like Snapchat, and existing ones, like Twitter, that succeed by offering advertisers a fundamentally different offering than Facebook and Google do.
The SAAS sector will continue to consolidate, driven by a trifecta of legacy enterprise software companies (like Oracle), successful SAAS companies (like Workday), and private equity firms all going in search of additional lines of business and recurring subscription revenue streams.
AI will be the new mobile. Investors will ask management what their “AI strategy” is before investing and will be wary of companies that don’t have one.
Tech investors will start to adopt genomics as an additional “information technology” investment category, blurring the distinction between life science and tech investors that has existed in the VC sector for the past thirty years. This will lead to a funding frenzy and many investments will go badly. But there will be big winners to be had in this sector and it will be an important category for VCs for the foreseeable future.
Google, Facebook, and to a lesser extent Apple and Amazon will be seen as monopolists by government and individuals in the US (as they have been for years outside the US). Things like the fake news crisis will make clear to everyone how reliant we have become on these tech powerhouses and there will be a backlash. It will be Microsoft redux and the government will seek remedies which will be futile. But as in the Microsoft situation, technology, particularly decentralized applications built on open data platforms (ie blockchain technology), will come to the rescue and reduce our reliance on these monopolies. This scenario will take years to play out, but the seeds have been sown and we will start to see this scenario play out in 2017.
Cyberwarfare will be front and center in our lives in the same way that nuclear warfare was during the cold war. Crypto will be the equivalent of bomb shelters and we will all be learning about private keys, how to use them, and how to manage them. A company will make crypto mainstream via an easy to use interface and it will become the next big thing.
These are my big predictions for 2017. If my prior track record is any indication, I will be wrong about more of this than I am right. The beauty of the VC business is you don’t have to be right that often, as long as you are right about something big. Which leads to going out on a limb and taking risks. And I think that strategy will pay dividends in 2017. Here’s to a new year and new challenges to overcome.
